I recently obtained a fascinating table showing the populations of each county of Nova Scotia in every Census since Canada’s 1867 Confederation. Examination of these numbers provides insight to the development of the province and surprising information on the past that I did not appreciate. It helps immensely that the boundaries of these counties have never changed facilitating easy comparison from census to census.
Nova Scotia Counties, 1865
Nova Scotia Counties, 2009
Census Populations, Nova Scotia Counties, 1871-2006
|
County |
1871 |
1881 |
1891 |
1901 |
1911 |
1921 |
1931 |
| Cape Breton |
26,454 |
31,258 |
34,244 |
49,166 |
73,330 |
86,319 |
92,502 |
| Inverness |
23,415 |
25,651 |
25,779 |
24,353 |
21,774 |
20,040 |
17,529 |
| Richmond |
14,268 |
15,121 |
14,399 |
13,515 |
13,273 |
12,464 |
11,098 |
| Victoria |
11,346 |
12,470 |
12,432 |
10,571 |
9,910 |
8,904 |
7,926 |
| Halifax |
56,963 |
67,917 |
71,358 |
74,662 |
80,257 |
97,228 |
100,204 |
| Annapolis |
18,121 |
20,598 |
19,350 |
18,842 |
18,581 |
18,153 |
16,297 |
| Antigonish |
16,512 |
18,060 |
16,114 |
13,617 |
11,962 |
11,580 |
10,073 |
| Colchester |
23,331 |
26,720 |
27,160 |
24,900 |
23,664 |
25,196 |
25,051 |
| Cumberland |
23,518 |
27,368 |
34,529 |
36,168 |
40,543 |
41,191 |
36,366 |
| Digby |
17,037 |
19,881 |
19,897 |
20,322 |
20,167 |
19,612 |
18,353 |
| Guysborough |
16,555 |
17,808 |
17,195 |
18,320 |
17,048 |
15,518 |
15,443 |
| Hants |
21,301 |
23,359 |
22,052 |
20,056 |
19,703 |
19,739 |
19,393 |
| Kings |
21,510 |
23,469 |
22,489 |
21,937 |
21,780 |
23,723 |
24,357 |
| Lunenburg |
23,834 |
28,583 |
31,075 |
32,389 |
33,260 |
33,742 |
31,674 |
| Pictou |
32,114 |
35,535 |
34,541 |
33,459 |
35,858 |
40,851 |
39,018 |
| Queens |
10,554 |
10,577 |
10,610 |
10,226 |
10,106 |
9,944 |
10,612 |
| Shelburne |
12,417 |
14,913 |
14,956 |
14,202 |
14,105 |
13,491 |
12,485 |
| Yarmouth |
18,550 |
21,284 |
22,216 |
22,869 |
23,220 |
22,374 |
20,939 |
| NOVA SCOTIA |
387,800 |
440,572 |
450,396 |
459,574 |
488,541 |
520,069 |
509,320 |
|
County |
1941 |
1951 |
1961 |
1971 |
1981 |
1986 |
1991 |
| Cape Breton |
110,703 |
120,306 |
131,507 |
129,075 |
127,035 |
123,625 |
120,098 |
| Inverness |
16,951 |
16,030 |
18,718 |
20,375 |
22,337 |
21,946 |
21,620 |
| Richmond |
10,853 |
10,783 |
11,374 |
12,734 |
12,284 |
11,841 |
11,260 |
| Victoria |
8,028 |
8,217 |
8,266 |
7,823 |
8,432 |
8,704 |
8,708 |
| Halifax |
122,656 |
162,189 |
225,714 |
266,208 |
288,115 |
306,418 |
330,846 |
| Annapolis |
17,692 |
21,747 |
22,649 |
21,841 |
22,521 |
23,589 |
23,641 |
| Antigonish |
10,545 |
11,971 |
14,360 |
16,814 |
18,107 |
18,929 |
19,226 |
| Colchester |
30,124 |
31,536 |
34,307 |
37,763 |
43,224 |
45,093 |
47,683 |
| Cumberland |
39,476 |
39,655 |
37,767 |
35,160 |
35,231 |
34,819 |
34,284 |
| Digby |
19,472 |
19,989 |
20,216 |
20,349 |
21,688 |
21,852 |
21,250 |
| Guysborough |
15,461 |
14,245 |
13,274 |
12,864 |
12,752 |
12,568 |
11,724 |
| Hants |
22,034 |
23,357 |
26,444 |
28,935 |
33,121 |
36,548 |
37,843 |
| Kings |
28,920 |
33,183 |
41,747 |
44,975 |
49,739 |
53,275 |
56,317 |
| Lunenburg |
32,942 |
33,256 |
34,998 |
38,422 |
45,746 |
46,483 |
47,634 |
| Pictou |
40,789 |
44,002 |
43,908 |
46,104 |
50,380 |
49,772 |
49,651 |
| Queens |
12,028 |
12,544 |
13,155 |
12,950 |
13,126 |
13,148 |
12,923 |
| Shelburne |
13,251 |
14,392 |
15,208 |
16,661 |
17,328 |
17,516 |
17,343 |
| Yarmouth |
22,415 |
22,794 |
23,386 |
24,682 |
26,290 |
27,073 |
27,891 |
| NOVA SCOTIA |
574,340 |
640,196 |
736,998 |
793,735 |
847,456 |
873,199 |
899,942 |
|
County |
1996 |
2001 |
2006 |
| Cape Breton |
117,849 |
109,330 |
105,928 |
| Inverness |
20,918 |
19,937 |
19,036 |
| Richmond |
11,022 |
10,225 |
9,740 |
| Victoria |
8,482 |
7,962 |
7,594 |
| Halifax |
342,966 |
359,183 |
372,858 |
| Annapolis |
22,324 |
21,773 |
21,438 |
| Antigonish |
19,554 |
19,578 |
18,836 |
| Colchester |
49,262 |
49,307 |
50,023 |
| Cumberland |
33,804 |
32,605 |
32,046 |
| Digby |
20,500 |
19,548 |
18,992 |
| Guysborough |
10,917 |
9,827 |
9,058 |
| Hants |
39,483 |
40,513 |
41,182 |
| Kings |
59,193 |
58,866 |
60,035 |
| Lunenburg |
47,561 |
47,591 |
47,150 |
| Pictou |
48,718 |
46,965 |
46,513 |
| Queens |
12,417 |
11,723 |
11,212 |
| Shelburne |
17,002 |
16,231 |
15,544 |
| Yarmouth |
27,310 |
26,843 |
26,277 |
| NOVA SCOTIA |
909,282 |
908,007 |
913,462 |
The first thing I noticed was how much more evenly distributed the province’s population was in 1871 than today. No county had more than 15 per cent of the province’s population and the smallest, Queens, had 2.7 per cent. In 2006, Halifax had 40.8 per cent of the province’s population and seven counties had smaller shares than Queens did in 1871. The smallest, Victoria, had just 0.8 per cent.
Cape Breton had less than half the population of Halifax at Confederation but was within 10 percentage points (90.3 per cent) by 1941. It has since fallen back to just 28.4 per cent. Cape Breton Island, which peaked at 25.5 per cent of Nova Scotia’s population in 1941, has fallen to just 15.6 per cent. Halifax, in contrast, has increased its share steadily from 14.7 per cent to its current 40.8 per cent.
Just four counties recorded their highest Census population since Confederation in 2006. Only Halifax has gained population in every Census since 1871. The three rural counties of Cape Breton have lost population steadily since 1881. Four rural counties reached their nadir in 1931 but all four have recovered. The most notable is Hants, which has more than doubled its population in the years since. Guysborough began a sustained decline in 1901 and now has less than half the population that it had at that time. Cumberland began to lose population in 1921 and now has barely more than three-quarters of its peak population. Antigonish lost population steadily from Confederation to 1931 but gained population in every Census thereafter until the most recent one in 2006. Other counties have mostly peaked since 1981 but only the four now at their historic peak, gained population from 2001 to 2006.
Nova Scotia itself has increased its population nearly as steadily as Halifax, taking a backward step only once, in 2001 when the province lost just over 1,000 residents. Its population is now at its highest point in history, which of course means its population density is at its peak with 17.26 persons per square kilometer. Many areas of the province, however, have much lower population densities than in the past. The title of Nova Scotia’s least populated county has been exchanged periodically between Victoria County and Guysborough County, which covers the extreme eastern tip of the Nova Scotia mainland. Victoria has held the distinction for 13 of the 17 Censuses listed in the following table but Guysborourgh edged Victoria in 1891 and since regaining the title in 1996 has widened the gap to nearly half a person less per square kilometer.
Population Densities (persons per square kilometer), Nova Scotia Counties, 1871-2006
|
County |
1871 |
1881 |
1891 |
1901 |
1911 |
1921 |
1931 |
1941 |
1951 |
| Cape Breton |
10.71 |
12.65 |
13.86 |
19.90 |
29.68 |
34.94 |
37.44 |
44.81 |
48.70 |
| Inverness |
6.11 |
6.70 |
6.73 |
6.36 |
5.68 |
5.23 |
4.58 |
4.43 |
4.18 |
| Richmond |
11.47 |
12.15 |
11.57 |
10.86 |
10.67 |
10.02 |
8.92 |
8.72 |
8.67 |
| Victoria |
3.95 |
4.34 |
4.33 |
3.68 |
3.45 |
3.10 |
2.76 |
2.80 |
2.86 |
| Halifax |
10.37 |
12.36 |
12.98 |
13.59 |
14.60 |
17.69 |
18.23 |
22.32 |
29.51 |
| Annapolis |
5.69 |
6.47 |
6.08 |
5.92 |
5.83 |
5.70 |
5.12 |
5.55 |
6.83 |
| Antigonish |
11.33 |
12.39 |
11.05 |
9.34 |
8.21 |
7.94 |
6.91 |
7.23 |
8.21 |
| Colchester |
6.43 |
7.37 |
7.49 |
6.86 |
6.52 |
6.95 |
6.91 |
8.30 |
8.69 |
| Cumberland |
5.51 |
6.41 |
8.08 |
8.47 |
9.49 |
9.64 |
8.51 |
9.24 |
9.28 |
| Digby |
6.77 |
7.90 |
7.91 |
8.08 |
8.02 |
7.80 |
7.30 |
7.74 |
7.95 |
| Guysborough |
4.09 |
4.40 |
4.25 |
4.53 |
4.22 |
3.84 |
3.82 |
3.82 |
3.52 |
| Hants |
6.99 |
7.66 |
7.23 |
6.58 |
6.46 |
6.47 |
6.36 |
7.23 |
7.66 |
| Kings |
10.14 |
11.06 |
10.60 |
10.34 |
10.26 |
11.18 |
11.48 |
13.63 |
15.64 |
| Lunenburg |
8.20 |
9.83 |
10.69 |
11.14 |
11.44 |
11.60 |
10.89 |
11.33 |
11.44 |
| Pictou |
11.29 |
12.49 |
12.14 |
11.76 |
12.60 |
14.36 |
13.71 |
14.34 |
15.47 |
| Queens |
4.41 |
4.42 |
4.43 |
4.27 |
4.22 |
4.16 |
4.44 |
5.03 |
5.24 |
| Shelburne |
5.04 |
6.05 |
6.07 |
5.76 |
5.72 |
5.47 |
5.07 |
5.38 |
5.84 |
| Yarmouth |
8.74 |
10.02 |
10.46 |
10.77 |
10.94 |
10.54 |
9.86 |
10.56 |
10.74 |
| AVERAGE |
7.33 |
8.33 |
8.51 |
8.68 |
9.23 |
9.83 |
9.62 |
10.85 |
12.10 |
| MIN |
3.95 |
4.34 |
4.25 |
3.68 |
3.45 |
3.10 |
2.76 |
2.80 |
2.86 |
| MAX |
11.47 |
12.65 |
13.86 |
19.90 |
29.68 |
34.94 |
37.44 |
44.81 |
48.70 |
| STD DEV |
2.61 |
2.96 |
2.99 |
3.86 |
5.81 |
7.13 |
7.73 |
9.43 |
10.76 |
|
County |
1951 |
1961 |
1971 |
1981 |
1986 |
1991 |
1996 |
2001 |
2006 |
| Cape Breton |
48.70 |
53.23 |
52.25 |
51.42 |
50.04 |
48.61 |
47.70 |
44.25 |
42.88 |
| Inverness |
4.18 |
4.89 |
5.32 |
5.83 |
5.73 |
5.64 |
5.46 |
5.20 |
4.97 |
| Richmond |
8.67 |
9.14 |
10.23 |
9.87 |
9.52 |
9.05 |
8.86 |
8.22 |
7.83 |
| Victoria |
2.86 |
2.88 |
2.72 |
2.94 |
3.03 |
3.03 |
2.95 |
2.77 |
2.65 |
| Halifax |
29.51 |
41.07 |
48.44 |
52.43 |
55.76 |
60.20 |
62.41 |
65.36 |
67.85 |
| Annapolis |
6.83 |
7.11 |
6.86 |
7.07 |
7.41 |
7.42 |
7.01 |
6.84 |
6.73 |
| Antigonish |
8.21 |
9.85 |
11.53 |
12.42 |
12.98 |
13.19 |
13.41 |
13.43 |
12.92 |
| Colchester |
8.69 |
9.46 |
10.41 |
11.92 |
12.43 |
13.14 |
13.58 |
13.59 |
13.79 |
| Cumberland |
9.28 |
8.84 |
8.23 |
8.25 |
8.15 |
8.03 |
7.91 |
7.63 |
7.50 |
| Digby |
7.95 |
8.04 |
8.09 |
8.62 |
8.69 |
8.45 |
8.15 |
7.77 |
7.55 |
| Guysborough |
3.52 |
3.28 |
3.18 |
3.15 |
3.11 |
2.90 |
2.70 |
2.43 |
2.24 |
| Hants |
7.66 |
8.67 |
9.49 |
10.86 |
11.99 |
12.41 |
12.95 |
13.29 |
13.51 |
| Kings |
15.64 |
19.67 |
21.19 |
23.44 |
25.10 |
26.54 |
27.89 |
27.74 |
28.29 |
| Lunenburg |
11.44 |
12.04 |
13.21 |
15.73 |
15.98 |
16.38 |
16.36 |
16.37 |
16.21 |
| Pictou |
15.47 |
15.43 |
16.20 |
17.71 |
17.49 |
17.45 |
17.12 |
16.51 |
16.35 |
| Queens |
5.24 |
5.50 |
5.41 |
5.49 |
5.50 |
5.40 |
5.19 |
4.90 |
4.69 |
| Shelburne |
5.84 |
6.17 |
6.76 |
7.03 |
7.11 |
7.04 |
6.90 |
6.59 |
6.31 |
| Yarmouth |
10.74 |
11.01 |
11.62 |
12.38 |
12.75 |
13.14 |
12.86 |
12.64 |
12.38 |
| AVERAGE |
12.10 |
13.93 |
15.00 |
16.01 |
16.50 |
17.01 |
17.18 |
17.16 |
17.26 |
| MIN |
2.86 |
2.88 |
2.72 |
2.94 |
3.03 |
2.90 |
2.70 |
2.43 |
2.24 |
| MAX |
48.70 |
53.23 |
52.25 |
52.43 |
55.76 |
60.20 |
62.41 |
65.36 |
67.85 |
| STD DEV |
10.76 |
12.82 |
13.60 |
14.03 |
14.38 |
14.99 |
15.36 |
15.57 |
15.97 |
Halifax County has not always been the most densely settled area of Nova Scotia. In 1871, Richmond, Antigonish, and Cape Breton were all more tightly packed than Halifax. It’s astonishing to think that Richmond, which is now eleventh among Nova Scotia’s 17 counties in terms of population density, was once the leader. It is probably even more amazing to realize that Halifax only surpassed Cape Breton by this measure in 1981, less than 30 years ago.
Over this period, the population density in the province’s most sparsely settled county has more often than not fallen further. It is now 56.7 per cent of the minimum in 1871. The maximum population density recorded for any county has risen between every Census but one (1961 to 1971) and is now nearly six times the 1871 level. Not surprisingly, the standard deviation, which measure the dispersion in each distribution of population densities, has risen relentlessly and now stands at more than six times its 1871 level.
What Nova Scotia’s post-Confederation demographic history illustrates very nicely is the process of urbanization. The settlement pattern of the province was surprisingly uniform when it joined with Upper and Lower Canada, and New Brunswick in 1867. I notice that on my job all the time when I work in rocky areas on the edge of Halifax that were once farmed or in rural communities where clients mention cabins, roadways, and former industries “in the woods” or try to develop ideas to revive communities that once supported schools at all three levels and had a downtown with a post office but are now occupied by a few hundred senior citizens. Population has been steadily drawn to the cities. At one time it was drawn to Sydney and the cluster of towns around it that now constitute Cape Breton Regional Municipality (for practical purposes the former Cape Breton County) as well as Halifax, but for nearly 50 years now it has largely gone to Halifax alone. In fact, since 1971, Halifax has begun to spillover into the adjacent counties of Hants, Colchester, and Kings, which share the distinction with Halifax of being the only counties that grew from 2001 to 2006.
The process of urbanization, furthermore, has had several interesting steps. The five counties that reached their nadir by 1931 included three that relied heavily on agriculture (Annapolis, Antigonish, and Hants). The other two, Shelburne and Queens were primarily oriented to the fishery. The four counties that have reached bottom since 1951 are in the province’s northeast: the three rural counties of Cape Breton and Guysborough all of which have relied on a mixture of resource industries. Many other rural resource areas are also losing population. This includes three former coal mining counties (i.e., Cape Breton, Pictou, and Cumberland) that generally grew well after Confederation but all of which peaked by 1981.
As Nova Scotia enters an era in which it seems very likely that it will eventually experience a decline in population, Halifax seems likely to maintain its strong position. As the seat of provincial government, a major centre for the delivery of Federal government services, and as the financial and service centre of Atlantic Canada, but especially as the site of several universities, Halifax seems well-positioned to maintain and expand its leadership. Other counties with universities and major educational institutions (Antigonish, Kings, and Colchester) should also be stable. For the remainder of the province, the future depends on the ability of residents in each locality to reposition themselves as the resource industries on which they have traditionally relied continue to decline. The environment and amenities of Nova Scotia offer a promising foundation for resort development and tourism industry on which many will likely have to rely along with repositioned resource-based businesses and niche knowledge-based operations.
